[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 11 09:30:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 10 July. A C8.6 flare was
observed at 0059 UT from region 2564(N09E51). This flare was
associated with a Type II radio burst and a narrow cone non-earthward
directed CME. This region also produced some B-class flares.
Solar wind stream continued to stay strong due to the coronal
hole effect. Solar wind speed slowly decreased from 600 to 550
km/s (approx.) during the UT day today. IMF Bz varied mostly
between +/-4 nT on this day. This coronal hole effect is expected
to keep weakening through 11 July, but the effect of a high speed
solar wind stream from another coronal hole is likely to start
strengthening the solar wind stream from late hours on 11 July.
Hence solar wind stream is expected to continue to stay strong
on 11 and 12 July. Solar activity is expected to stay at very
low levels over the next three days (11, 12 and 13 July) with
some possibility of C-class activity and isolated M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 4 12122110
Darwin 5 22122111
Townsville 5 22222111
Learmonth 7 23222121
Alice Springs 5 22222111
Gingin 8 23232221
Canberra 6 22232111
Melbourne 6 22232111
Hobart 6 22232111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 8 21234101
Casey 10 33332221
Mawson 24 34444235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 76 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 4343 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 20 Mostly quiet to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
12 Jul 20 Mostly quiet to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible.
13 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity showed increases to unsettled levels
with isolated active periods on high latitudes on 10 July. Despite
high solar wind speed, the geomagnetic activity did not rise
too high as IMF Bz did not stay southwards for long enough intervals
of time. The current coronal hole may keep geomagnetic activity
enhanced up to active levels on 11 July. The possible effect
of another coronal hole may enhance geomagnetic activity from
11 July. Mostly quiet to active levels of activity may be expected
on 11 and 12 July with the possibility of isolated minor storm
periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT
day 10 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and rise in
geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely from 11
to 13 July due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation
and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic activity
levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 25 Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 25 Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 30 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 9 July
and is current for 10-12 Jul. Mild to moderate MUF depressions
were observed over the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions
on UT day 10 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and rise
in geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely in the Aus/NZ
regions from 11 to 13 July due to continued very low levels of
ionising radiation and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 615 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 215000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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