[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 10 09:30:16 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              92/37              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 9 July. A C2.6 flare was observed 
at 1607 UT from region 2564(N09E63). This region also produced 
some B-class flares. As expected solar wind stream continued 
to stay strong due to the coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed 
mostly stayed between 600 and 650 km/s (approx.) during the UT 
day today. IMF Bz varied mostly between +/-7 nT on this day. 
This coronal hole effect is likely to keep the solar wind stream 
strong on 10 July as well. Solar activity is expected to stay 
at very low levels over the next three days (10, 11 and 12 July) 
with some possibility of isolated C-class activity. A high speed 
solar wind stream from another coronal hole may strengthen solar 
wind parameters from 11 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet to active, 
isolated minor storm periods on high latitudes

Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22334321
      Cocos Island         6   22223210
      Darwin              10   32333211
      Townsville          11   22334221
      Learmonth           12   22334321
      Alice Springs       11   22334221
      Norfolk Island       9   -2333221
      Gingin              13   32334321
      Canberra            10   22333321
      Melbourne           12   22334321
      Hobart              10   22333321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    22   22536321
      Casey               32   33334472
      Mawson              36   65553432

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              77   (Active)
      Canberra            74   (Active)
      Melbourne           98   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             22   4334 5443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled, active periods possible
11 Jul    18    Quiet to Active
12 Jul    18    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: As anticipated, the geomagnetic activity showed increases 
to unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm conditions 
on high latitudes on 9 July. Despite high solar wind speed, the 
geomagnetic activity did not rise to sustained minor storm levels 
as IMF Bz did not stay southwards for long enough intervals of 
time. The current coronal hole may keep geomagnetic activity 
enhanced up to active levels on 10 July. The possible effect 
of another coronal hole may enhance geomagnetic activity from 
11 July. Mostly quiet to active levels of activity may be expected 
on 11 and 12 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT 
day 9 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due 
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and rise in 
geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions 
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely from 10 
to 12 July due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation 
and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jul    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      31
Jul      42
Aug      40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul    25    Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jul    25    Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    25    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed over 
the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions on UT day 9 July. 
These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due to continued 
very low levels of ionising radiation and rise in geomagnetic 
activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and 
degradations in HF conditions are likely in the Aus/NZ regions 
from 10 to 12 July due to continued very low levels of ionising 
radiation and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 568 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:   212000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list