[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 9 09:30:36 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    87/30              87/30              87/30

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 8 July. A C2.7 flare was observed 
at 0056 UT from region 2564(N10E79). This region also produced 
a few B-class flares. As expected solar wind stream continued 
to stay strong due to the coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed 
gradually increased from 500 to over 600 km/s (approx.) during 
this time. IMF Bz varied mostly between +/-8 nT on this day. 
This coronal hole effect is likely to keep the solar wind stream 
strong on 9 and possibly 10 July as well. Solar activity is expected 
to stay at very low levels over the next three days (9, 10 and 
11 July) with some possibility of isolated C-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Mostly quiet 
to active, isolated minor storm periods on high latitudes.

Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   23344221
      Cocos Island         8   22223230
      Darwin               9   22333221
      Townsville          15   23444221
      Learmonth           18   23345331
      Alice Springs       13   23344221
      Norfolk Island      11   2234--21
      Gingin              20   23355331
      Canberra            17   22454222
      Melbourne           20   23454332
      Hobart              18   22454322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    40   22476442
      Casey               15   33334332
      Mawson              39   55544462

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              64   (Active)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           46   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             21   3333 3544     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul    20    Unsettled to minor storm
10 Jul    12    Quiet to Unsettled, isolated active periods possible
11 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: As anticipated, the geomagnetic activity showed increases 
to unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm conditions 
on high latitudes on 8 July. Nearly similar conditions may be 
expected on 9 July. Geomagnetic conditions may gradually decline 
from 10 July. Unsettled to active levels on 10 July and quiet 
to unsettled levels on 11 July may be expected.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT 
day 8 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due 
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and rise in 
geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions 
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely from 9 to 
11 July due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation 
and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jul    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      31
Jul      42
Aug      40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul    25    Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jul    30    Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jul    35    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 6 July 
and is current for 7-9 Jul. Mild to moderate MUF depressions 
were observed over the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions 
on UT day 8 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated 
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and rise 
in geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions 
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely in the Aus/NZ 
regions from 9 to 11 July due to continued very low levels of 
ionising radiation and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 428 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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