[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 8 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 85/27 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 7 July. A C5.1 flare was observed
at 0756 UT from region 2561(S16W45). As expected solar wind speed
gradually increased from 320 to 500 km/s (approx.) due to the
effect of a corotating interaction region followed by the effect
of a coronal hole during the UT day 7 July. IMF Bz varied mostly
between +/-10 nT on this day. This coronal hole effect is likely
to keep the solar wind stream strong on 8 and possibly 9 July
as well. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
over the next three days (8, 9 and 10 July) with some possibility
of isolated C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled,
isolated minor storm periods on high latitudes
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 10 22222333
Cocos Island 8 22222232
Darwin 11 32222333
Townsville 13 32233333
Learmonth 14 23233343
Alice Springs 11 22223333
Norfolk Island 8 22222223
Gingin 13 23322343
Canberra 9 22222233
Melbourne 12 22233333
Hobart 11 22232333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 19 12353523
Casey 14 33332234
Mawson 41 34543375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 1101 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 15 Unsettled to minor storm
09 Jul 12 Unsettled to Active
10 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 6 July and
is current for 7-8 Jul. As anticipated, the geomagnetic activity
showed increases to unsettled to active levels with isolated
minor storm conditions on high latitudes on 7 July. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected on 8 July. Geomagnetic conditions
may gradually decline from 9 July. Unsettled to active levels
on 9 July and quiet to unsettled levels on 10 July may be expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT
day 7 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and rise in
geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely from 8 to
10 July due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation
and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic activity
levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 18 Depressed 20 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 20 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 25 Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 6 July
and is current for 7-9 Jul. Mild to moderate MUF depressions
were observed over the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions
on UT day 7 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and rise
in geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely in the Aus/NZ
regions from 8 to 10 July due to continued very low levels of
ionising radiation and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 23200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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