[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 7 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 78/17 79/19
COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed stayed between 320 and
340 km/s (approx.) and the Bz component of IMF varied mostly
between +/-4 nT during the UT day today (6 July). The effect
of a corotating interaction region followed by a likely effect
of a coronal hole are expected to strengthen the solar wind stream
on 7 July. The coronal hole effect may keep the solar wind stream
strong on 8 and 9 July as well. Solar activity is expected to
stay at very low levels over the next three days (7, 8 and 9
July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11110012
Cocos Island 2 11100002
Darwin 2 11100012
Townsville 2 11110012
Learmonth 1 00010012
Alice Springs 1 01000002
Norfolk Island 1 10010011
Gingin 1 01000012
Canberra 1 00010002
Melbourne 2 11110012
Hobart 2 10110112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00020001
Casey 3 11110003
Mawson 11 11100116
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2210 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 15 Quiet to active, minor storm periods possible
08 Jul 15 Unsettled to minor storm
09 Jul 12 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today (6
July). The effect of a corotating interaction region and a high
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic
activity to active levels with the possibility of isolated minor
storm periods on 7 July. The effect of this coronal hole may
keep the activity high at minor storm levels on 8 July and unsettled
to active levels on 9 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
08 Jul Normal-fair Fair Fair
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed over
the low and mid latitude locations on UT day 6 July. These MUF
depressions seem to have eventuated due to continued very low
levels of ionising radiation. Minor to moderate depressions in
MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely from 7 to 9
July due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and
the possibility of rise in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 20 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 15 Depressed 20 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 20 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed over
the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions on UT day 6 July.
These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due to continued
very low levels of ionising radiation. Minor to moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely in the Aus/NZ
regions from 7 to 9 July due to continued very low levels of
ionising radiation and the possibility of rise in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 34600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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