[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 6 09:30:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 74/11 75/13
COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease
from 400 km/s to 340 km/s (approx.) and the Bz component of IMF
varied mostly between +/-3 nT during the UT day today (5 July).
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels over the
next three days (6, 7 and 8 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01000000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 0 02000000
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Melbourne 0 01000000
Launceston 0 01100000
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 2 22110000
Mawson 17 33210055
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 2232 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 5 Quiet
07 Jul 5 Quiet
08 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today (5
July). Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Fair Fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT
day 5 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days as no significant
solar activity is expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 20 Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 20 Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 20 Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed over
the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions on UT day 5 July.
These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due to continued
very low levels of ionising radiation. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected in this region for the next 3 days as no significant
solar activity is expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 67400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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