[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 5 09:30:29 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed 
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease 
from 450 km/s to 400 km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied 
mostly between +/-4 nT during the UT day today (4 July). Solar 
activity is expected to stay at very low levels over the next 
three days (5, 6 and 7 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11220021
      Cocos Island         2   11210020
      Darwin               4   12310021
      Townsville           4   21220021
      Learmonth            5   12320021
      Alice Springs        4   12220021
      Norfolk Island       2   11210011
      Gingin               6   12321031
      Canberra             3   11220020
      Melbourne            5   21231021
      Launceston           5   21231021
      Hobart               4   11231020    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00230000
      Casey                9   33221132
      Mawson              18   34322054

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           35   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3212 1323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul     5    Quiet
06 Jul     5    Quiet
07 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today (4 
July). Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
06 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT 
day 4 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due 
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation. Nearly similar 
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days as no significant 
solar activity is expected during this time.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jul    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      31
Jul      42
Aug      40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul    20    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jul    20    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jul    20    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed over 
the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions on UT day 4 July. 
These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due to continued 
very low levels of ionising radiation. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected in this region for the next 3 days as no significant 
solar activity is expected during this time.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 451 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   134000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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