[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 4 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: The solar disk remains spotless and solar activity remained
Very Low during the UT day 3 Jul. Expect solar activity to remain
Very Low for the next three days with a slight chance for C-class
flares. Two small solar filaments were observed in GONG H-alpha
between 0642UT and 1004UT in the NE quadrant. LASCO imagery showed
some associated ejecta which is not expected to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speeds remained moderately enhanced, between 400
km/s and ~500 km/s, during the UT day 03 Jul. These are effects
of high speed solar wind streams (HSS) associated with the equatorial
coronal hole. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -8 and
+10 nT during 00-03UT and mostly neutral for the rest of the
UT day. Bz is currently at weak levels to cause any significant
geomagnetic disturbances despite the enhanced solar winds. The
three days outlook (4-6 Jul) is for the solar winds to remain
initially at enhanced levels and then to gradually decline as
the coronal hole effects wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22110212
Cocos Island 3 12101111
Darwin 4 22111211
Townsville 5 22111212
Learmonth 5 22111212
Alice Springs 4 22010212
Norfolk Island 3 21120111
Gingin 5 22110222
Canberra 4 22010212
Melbourne 5 22120212
Launceston 7 22121223
Hobart 5 22120212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 11120201
Casey 9 33222222
Mawson 38 54522247
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 8 1211 1134
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jul 5 Quiet
06 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian
region for the UT day, 3 Jul. Despite the moderately enhanced
solar wind speed due to HSS from the coronal hole, the geomagnetic
activity were at Quiet levels due to unfavourable IMF Bz conditions.
Today, 4 Jul conditions may reach Unsettled levels at times due
the persisting coronal hole effects. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic
conditions are expected for 5-6 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Fair-poor Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Fair-poor Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be slightly depressed relative
to monthly predicted values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 20 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 30 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 30 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 2 July
and is current for 3-4 Jul. Mild to moderate MUFs depressions
were observed over the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions.
MUFs over the Southern Australian region were slightly depressed
to near predicted monthly values. MUFs are likely to be near
predicted monthly values to slightly depressed for the next 3
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 24600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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