[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 3 09:30:24 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 74/11
COMMENT: The solar disk remains spotless and solar activity remained
Very Low during the UT day 2 Jul. Expect solar activity to remain
Very Low for the next three days with a slight chance for C-class
flares. No Earthward directed CMEs noted on LASCO imagery. Beginning
at around 17 UT the solar wind speed has shown a steady increase
from 340 km/s to around 450km/s at the time of this report (23:30
UT). Solar wind density has remained high and the Bz component
of the IMF has fluctuated between +/-7 nT. This is consistent
with a geo-effective Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) associated
with an equatorial positioned coronal hole. Expect solar wind
speed to increase further over the next 24 hours as we move into
the main part of the coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 01112122
Cocos Island 2 00110022
Darwin 3 11101022
Townsville 3 01112022
Learmonth 3 01102122
Alice Springs 2 01101022
Gingin 4 01102222
Canberra 2 01002011
Melbourne 3 01112111
Launceston 4 -1112112
Hobart 2 00112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 00023100
Casey 5 22111212
Mawson 8 24212112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3323 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 25 Quiet to Active. Chance Minor Storm periods.
04 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled.
05 Jul 7 Mostly Quiet.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 30 June and
is current for 2-3 Jul. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in
the Australian region for the UT day, 2 Jul. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase to Active levels today, 3 Jul with possible
isolated Minor Storm periods particularly at high latitudes due
to a high speed solar wind stream associated with a geo-effective
equatorial coronal hole. A return to mostly Quiet geomagnetic
conditions 5 Jul. There is chance that aurora may be visible
tonight from high magnetic latitude regions of Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Fair-poor Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
04 Jul Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
05 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: An expected increase in geomagnetic activity is likely
to result in disturbed ionospheric support and MUF depressions
over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 10 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
04 Jul 10 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
05 Jul 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions were observed at low latitudes
and slightly depressed conditions were observed at mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Depressed HF conditions are expected
to continue at all latitudes for the next 48 hours due expected
increase in geomagnetic activity associated with a coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 78800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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