[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 2 09:30:34 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low during the UT day 1
Jul. Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three
days with a slight chance for C-class flares. No sunspots are
visible on the solar disk at this time. No Earthward directed
CMEs noted on LASCO imagery. Over the last 24 hours the solar
wind speed varied between 350km/s to 440km/s and is currently
just under 400km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between
+/-7nT, mostly neutral for the last half of the UT day. The solar
winds are expected to start enhancing late today, 2 Jul as an
equatorial coronal hole approaches geoeffective location on the
solar disk. In the previous rotations, solar wind speed reached
more than 550 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12221000
Cocos Island 3 12220000
Darwin 3 22221000
Townsville 3 1-221101
Learmonth 3 12221000
Alice Springs 3 12221000
Norfolk Island 3 12221000
Gingin 3 12221000
Canberra 3 12221000
Melbourne 3 12221000
Launceston 5 12332000
Hobart 4 12321000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 12331000
Casey 4 23221000
Mawson 12 34332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1101 0233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 30 Quiet to Minor Storm
03 Jul 25 Quiet to Active
04 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 30 June and
is current for 2-3 Jul. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in
the Australian region for the UT day, 1 Jul. These conditions
are expected to prevail until a recurrent prolonged equatorial
coronal hole effects come into play late on today, 2 Jul, bringing
Active and possibly Minor Storm periods particularly at high
latitudes. There is chance that aurora may be visible tonight
from high magnetic latitude regions of Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
03 Jul Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
04 Jul Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: An expected increase in geomagnetic activity is likely
to result in disturbed ionospheric support and MUF depressions
over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
03 Jul 10 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
04 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
35%
COMMENT: Minor depressions to near predicted monthly values with
periods of slightly improved ionospheric support for HF communications
observed in the Australian region today, 1 Jul. Noted Spread
F periods observed at Hobart and Darwin stations. An expected
increase in geomagnetic activity associated with a coronal hole
is likely to result in degraded HF conditions and MUF depressions
especially in mid and high latitude regions of Australia on 2-4
Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 33600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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