[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 1 09:30:33 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low during the UT day 30
June. Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three
days with a slight chance for C-class flares. No sunspots are
visible on the solar disk at this time. No Earthward directed
CMEs noted on LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed was near steady
at ~350 Km/s during the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the
IMF had a notable sustained southward period from 1700 UT ranging
between -3nT and -8nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
at nominal levels today, 1 July. On UT day 2 July, the solar
winds are expected to start enhancing as an equatorial coronal
hole approaches geoeffective location on the solar disk. In the
previous rotations, solar wind speed reached more than 550 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 01000122
Cocos Island 2 01000121
Darwin 2 01000122
Townsville 3 11100122
Learmonth 4 01010232
Alice Springs 2 01100122
Norfolk Island 4 --200122
Gingin 3 01100132
Canberra 2 00000122
Melbourne 2 01010122
Launceston 2 11000122
Hobart 3 11010122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00020011
Casey 4 12100131
Mawson 15 01200164
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2211 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 7 Quiet
02 Jul 30 Quiet to Minor Storm
03 Jul 25 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian
region for the UT day, 30 June. These conditions are expected
to prevail until a recurrent prolonged equatorial coronal hole
effects come into play on 2 July, bringing Active and possibly
Minor Storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
02 Jul Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
03 Jul Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative
to monthly predicted values. An expected increase in geomagnetic
activity is likely to result in disturbed ionospheric support
and further MUF depressions on 2-3 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
02 Jul 10 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
03 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 28 June
and is current for 29 Jun to 1 Jul. MUFs depressions were observed
in the Australian region during the UT day 30 June. An expected
increase in geomagnetic activity is likely to result in disturbed
ionospheric support and further MUF depressions on 2-3 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 40400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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