[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 21 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 20 January
with two C-class flares occurring from active regions 2484(N07W80)
and 2487(S13E39). Solar flare activity is expected to remain
Low over the next three days mainly due to active region 2487.
No Earthward directed CMEs were noted in SOHO imagery for 20
January. The solar wind speed ranged from just under 350 to just
over 400 km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF varied
between approximately +12 nT early in the UT day and then changing
to a prolonged southerly orientation at approximately 20/0330UT
reaching -14 nT with the total IMF reaching 17 nT at 20/0351UT.
The solar wind is currently around 360 km/s with a Bz component
of the IMF fluctuating between positive and negative values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 20 12254443
Cocos Island 10 12233332
Darwin 15 12243442
Townsville 18 12253443
Learmonth 20 22254443
Alice Springs 18 02253443
Norfolk Island 12 22243332
Culgoora 20 22254443
Gingin 24 11254553
Canberra 20 12254443
Melbourne 24 12264443
Launceston 33 13265553
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 44 12356753
Casey 22 45442333
Mawson 25 33344544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 14 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 7 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3332 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 12 Unsettled
22 Jan 6 Quiet
23 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Minor Storm levels
throughout the Australian region during the UT day, 20 January.
The unexpected activity was due to an extended southerly orientation
of the Bz component of the IMF resulting in reconnection with
the Earth's magnetic field and a geomagnetic storm. The prolonged
Bz period appears to be coming to an end, however may continue
to fluctuate during the early part of the UT day, 21 January.
Expect periods active levels to continue for the first part of
the UT day and then return to Unsettled to Quiet levels later
in the UT day in the Australian region. Higher latitudes may
have periods of Minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Fair Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mildly disturbed during 21 January due to geomagnetic storming.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 40 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 20 January
and is current for 21 Jan only. Conditions for HF radio propagation
were mainly near predicted values with mild depressions at local
dawn and at higher latitudes. Expect similar conditions to prevail
over the UT day 21 January and a returned to predicted MUF values
on 22-23 January. Noted isolated periods of sporadic E throughout
the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: 8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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