[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 20 10:30:28 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 
January. Solar flare activity is expected to remain Very Low 
over the next three days. No Earthward directed CMEs were noted 
in SOHO imagery for 19 January. The solar wind speed ranged from 
350 to 400 km/s over the UT day as the coronal mass ejection 
went by Earth. The total IMF reached 15nT. The Bz component of 
the IMF varied between approximately -10 nT early in the UT day 
changing to +10 nT later in the UT day most like due to transiting 
CME effects. Expect the solar wind to remain elevated today remaining 
around 400 km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   32342212
      Cocos Island         8   32232202
      Darwin               8   22332202
      Townsville          11   32342212
      Learmonth           14   32352203
      Alice Springs       10   32342202
      Norfolk Island       8   22332112
      Culgoora            10   2234221-
      Gingin              13   42342213
      Canberra             9   33332102
      Melbourne           12   33342212
      Launceston          13   33442212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     8   22342101
      Casey               25   46542112
      Mawson              18   54341312

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0000 1103     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active throughout 
the Australian region during the UT day, 19 January. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian 
region for the next two days due to slightly elevated solar wind 
and then returning to Quiet levels on 22 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jan    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
21 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mainly near 
predicted values or slightly enhanced for the UT day, 19 January. 
Expect MUFs to be near normal to slightly depressed during the 
UT day, 20 January. Noted isolated periods of sporadic E throughout 
the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 302 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    30600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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