[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 22 10:30:29 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 21 January 
with four C-class flares occurring from active regions 2484, 
2487, and 2488. Two of the C-class flares and the largest, C2.9, 
occurred from active region 2487. Solar flare activity is expected 
to remain Low over the next three days mainly due to active region 
2487. No Earthward directed CMEs were noted in SOHO imagery for 
21 January. The solar wind speed gradually increased from 350 
to 550 km/s during the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the 
IMF varied between +16/-20 nT over the last 24 hours and after 
significant fluctuations has settled back to +/-5 nT. The total 
IMF decreased by approximately 1/2 from 15nT to 7nT at around 
21/1000. Expect the solar wind to remain elevated for the UT 
day, 22 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Unsettled to 
Active

Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      18   34333433
      Cocos Island        12   23222433
      Darwin              14   33333332
      Townsville          15   34333323
      Learmonth           19   33334443
      Alice Springs       15   33333432
      Norfolk Island      13   24332323
      Culgoora            16   34333333
      Gingin              23   43334543
      Canberra            19   35333333
      Launceston          23   35434433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    25   35444433
      Casey               50   56753434
      Mawson              49   55543566

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             31                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             22   0234 5533     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Unsettled to Active levels 
throughout the Australian region during the UT day, 21 January 
due to waning effects of 14 January CME/erupting filament transit 
around Earth. Higher latitudes such as Tasmania and Antarctica 
were Active to Major Storm levels. Expect mostly Unsettled geomagnetic 
levels due to an elevated solar wind speed.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be slightly disturbed during 22 January due to Unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jan     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan    40    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jan    61    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 21 January 
and is current for 22 Jan only. Conditions for HF radio propagation 
were depressed for the Australian region due to an ionospheric 
storm induced by a geomagnetic storm for the UT day, 21 January. 
Expect moderate depressions to near predicted MUF values as the 
ionospheric storm subsides for the UT day, 22 January. Observed 
periods of sporadic E throughout the Australian region, 21 January, 
expect this trend to continue today, 22 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:   100000 K  Bz:  -8 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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