[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 6 10:30:27 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed has increased since 
10 UT and is now around 500 km/s. The total IMF strength has 
also climbed, peaking at 17 nT, currently around 11 nT. The Bz 
component was mostly positive during 5-Jan, but has recently 
been negative, to -8 nT. Disturbed solar wind conditions are 
likely to persist during 6-7 Jan and start to ease on 8-Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12222321
      Cocos Island         5   11221221
      Darwin               7   12222321
      Townsville           7   12222321
      Learmonth            9   22222332
      Alice Springs        7   12222321
      Norfolk Island       6   12222221
      Gingin               6   21221222
      Camden               7   12222321
      Canberra             4   01221211
      Melbourne            7   12222321
      Launceston           9   13322322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     4   11111221
      Casey               22   45333343
      Mawson              10   23223232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   0110 0110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan    20    Active to Minor Storm
07 Jan    20    Active to Minor Storm
08 Jan    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 4 January and 
is current for 6-7 Jan. Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet 
across the Australian region on 5-Jan, with an unsettled period 
15-21 UT. Active periods are expected on 6-7 Jan due to coronal 
hole effects. Minor storm conditions at high latitudes are possible 
on these days. Conditions should start to ease on 8-Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair
08 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Moderately degraded conditions are likely on 7-Jan due 
to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jan    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan    65    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan    30    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
08 Jan    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 4 January 
and is current for 7 Jan only. MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on 5-Jan. Similar conditions are expected on 6 
Jan, with moderately depressed MUFs likely on 7-Jan due to more 
active geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    71800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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