[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 7 10:30:23 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jan             08 Jan             09 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a C1 flare from region 2480 (N04E75). Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low for the next 3 days. A CME from the southeast 
quadrant does not appear to be Earth-directed. The solar wind 
speed peaked around 670 km/s and has since declined to ~600 km/s. 
The total IMF strength declined to about 8 nT. The Bz component 
reached -7 nT early on 6-Jan, but spent most of the UT day varying 
between +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually 
decline over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32332212
      Cocos Island         7   32222212
      Darwin               9   32223312
      Townsville          12   32333322
      Learmonth           12   32333313
      Alice Springs       11   32333312
      Norfolk Island       9   32332221
      Culgoora            10   32332222
      Gingin              12   42332223
      Camden              10   32332222
      Canberra             8   32232212
      Melbourne           12   33333312
      Launceston          14   33333323
      Hobart              10   33332212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    21   32554312
      Casey               32   65633222
      Mawson              30   54543245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 4 January and 
is current for 6-7 Jan. Magnetic conditions over the Australian 
region were mostly quiet to unsettled on 6-Jan, with some storm 
level periods in the Antarctic. Mostly quiet conditions with 
some unsettled periods are expected for 7-Jan, becoming more 
settled 8-9 Jan. Active to minor storm periods are possible at 
higher latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are possible on 7-Jan at 
high latitudes due to recent geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jan    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 4 January 
and is current for 7 Jan only. MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values to enhanced on 6-Jan. Sporadic-E observed at Hobart 
since 20 UT. MUFs are expected be near monthly predicted values 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    88400 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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