[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 16 issued 2334 UT on 04 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Jan 5 10:34:35 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan:  95/41

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low and 
is expected to remain so over the next 3 days. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed peaked around 470 km/s 
but has since declined to ~400 km/s. The solar wind speed is 
expected to increase on 6-Jan due to coronal hole effects. Total 
IMF strength has increased slightly to around 6 nT. The Bz component 
varied between +/-5 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11210211
      Cocos Island         2   11200210
      Darwin               3   11210211
      Townsville           4   12210211
      Learmonth            4   11211211
      Alice Springs        3   11210211
      Norfolk Island       3   11210111
      Gingin               2   11100210
      Camden               5   12211221
      Canberra             2   01200210
      Melbourne            4   12210211
      Launceston           6   22211311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   10200110
      Casey               15   44432222
      Mawson              17   23322354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0120 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan     5    Quiet
06 Jan    20    Active to Minor Storm
07 Jan    20    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 4 January and 
is current for 6-7 Jan. Magnetic conditions were quiet across 
the Australian region on 4-Jan. Quiet conditions are expected 
to continue during 5-Jan, with active periods on 6-7 Jan due 
to coronal hole effects. Minor storm conditions at high latitudes 
are possible on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal
06 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal
07 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair

COMMENT: Moderately degraded conditions are likely on 7-Jan due 
to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Jan    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan    55    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan    55    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan    30    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 4 January 
and is current for 7 Jan only. Mild daytime MUF depressions were 
observed on 4-Jan in southern Australia, with moderate nighttime 
depressions in the north. MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values otherwise. Similar conditions are expected on 5-6 Jan, 
with moderately depressed MUFs likely on 7-Jan due to more active 
geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    80100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.