[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 16 issued 2352 UT on 18 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 19 10:52:03 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
2497 which has since rotated off disk, produced C-class events,
the largest being a C7.2 event at 0158UT. Region 2501 (N02E24)
also produced a C1.8 flare at 2113UT. A filament was observed
in Learmonth GONG H-alpha imagery near region 2501 lifting off
between 04UT-06UT, no LASCO imagery is currently available to
determine if this resulted in an earthward directed CME. Solar
wind speed remained elevated over the UT day at approx 600km/s
+/-80km/s. The north south component of the IMF Bz fluctuated
between +/-7nT from 00UT-05UT and is currently +/-4nT at the
time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
for the next 24 hours due to recurrent coronal hole influence.
Solar activity is expected to be Low to Very Low for 19-21Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Unsettled to
Active
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 19 33443343
Cocos Island 14 33332342
Darwin 14 33333332
Townsville 19 33443343
Learmonth 18 33333443
Norfolk Island 17 33353232
Culgoora 19 33443343
Canberra 14 23343332
Launceston 33 34564443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
Macquarie Island 46 34675442
Casey 31 46543343
Mawson 54 55543476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 31 5243 4455
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 18 Active
20 Feb 13 Unsettled to Active
21 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 17 February
and is current for 17-19 Feb. Unsettled to Active conditions
observed for the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Continued
geomagnetic activity due to recurrent coronal hole effects expected
for 19Feb with conditions ranging from Quiet to Active. Mostly
Unsettled with possible Active periods for 20Feb and Quiet to
Unsettled conditions for 21Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Poor-normal
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions over the last 24 hours with depressed
periods for mid to low latitudes and disturbed ionospheric support
for high latitudes. Normal HF conditions expected for low latitudes
and Normal to Fair HF conditions for mid latitudes for 19Feb.
Fair-Poor ionospheric support for high latitudes due to extended
geomagnetic activity. Low solar activity is expected to delay
ionospheric recovery from 20Feb onwards.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed over the last
24 hours with depressed MUF's observed for Southern AUS/NZ regions
and some Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Disturbed conditions
for some Antarctic stations. Continued elevated geomagnetic activity
expected for 19Feb should see variable ionospheric support, with
possible MUF depressions of ~20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions
and disturbed ionospheric conditions for Antarctic regions. Possible
enhanced periods during local day for low-latitude/equatorial
regions. Ionospheric recovery is expected from 20Feb onwards.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 570 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 181000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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