[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 16 issued 2353 UT on 17 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 18 10:53:45 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
2497 (currently on the west limb) the source of numerous C-class
events, the largest being a C9.4 event at 0501UT. Of the 3 other
significant regions currently on the visible disk, regions 2501(N04,E37)
and 2502(N09,W13) remain stable and unchanged while region 2503(N05,W00)
grew slightly. No earth directed CME's were observed from SOHO
LASCO imagery over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remained
elevated over the UT day at approx 600kms/s +/-40km/s. The north
south component of the IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-7nT for the
majority of the UT day with sustained southward periods since
18UT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the
next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate
for 18Feb and Very Low to Low for 19Feb-20Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 17 33324334
Cocos Island 16 32324343
Darwin 15 33324333
Townsville 18 33334334
Learmonth 24 43325444
Norfolk Island 13 32323333
Culgoora 17 33324334
Canberra 18 43324334
Launceston 26 44435434
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
Macquarie Island 34 43456444
Casey 42 56634345
Mawson 64 55535477
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 42 4234 6665
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 25 Active
19 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 17 February
and is current for 17-19 Feb. Quiet to Active conditions observed
for the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Elevated geomagnetic
activity due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Quiet to Active
conditions expected for 18Feb with possible Minor Storm periods,
Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods for 19Feb and
Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 20Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
19 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were near the predicted monthly values
for low latitudes with occasional enhanced periods. Depressed
conditions for mid latitudes over the UT day and Fair-Poor ionospheric
support for high latitudes due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Continued geomagnetic activity and reduced solar activity is
expected to delay ionospheric recovery over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
19 Feb 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 17 February
and is current for 17-18 Feb. Variable ionospheric support observed
over the last 24 hours with depressed MUF's observed for Southern
AUS/NZ regions, enhanced MUF's for some Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions and disturbed conditions for some Antarctic stations.
Continued elevated geomagnetic activity expected for 18Feb should
see MUF depressions of ~20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions and possibly
for Northern AUS regions. Continued disturbed ionospheric conditions
for Antarctic regions and possible enhanced periods during local
day for low-latitude/equatorial regions. Ionospheric support
expected to slowly return to near predicted monthly values by
20Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 229000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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