[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 16 issued 2352 UT on 16 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 17 10:52:06 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
2497 (currently N12W75) the source of numerous C-class events,
the largest being a C3.5 event at 0159UT. No earth directed CME's
were observed from SOHO LASCO imagery over the last 36 hours.
Solar wind speed was ~400km/s between 00UT-04UT after which it
steadily increased to be ~600km/s at the time of this report.
The increase in solar wind speed is attributed to a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) ahead of the negative polarity, southern
hemisphere located, coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
The total field value for the IMF (Bt) reached 17nT between 09UT-13UT
and its Bz component fluctuated between +/-13nT during this time.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the next
24-36 hours. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate
for the next 2 days (as region 2497 transits off the visible
disk) with the chance for further M-class flares and Low to Very
Low for 19Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 18 32344433
Cocos Island 17 32333443
Darwin 19 33344433
Townsville 18 32344433
Learmonth 29 32345545
Norfolk Island 17 32334433
Culgoora 21 32344533
Canberra 17 32334433
Launceston 30 33455543
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 44 32556654
Casey 46 45754444
Mawson 121 54556986
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 41
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2331 1114
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 26 Active
18 Feb 18 Active
19 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24
hours due to CIR/coronal hole effects. Active conditions expected
for 17Feb with possible Minor Storm periods, Unsettled to Active
conditions for 18Feb and Unsettled conditions with possible Active
periods for 19Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were near the predicted monthly values
for low to mid latitudes, with notable periods of enhancement
for low latitudes. Fair-Poor ionospheric support for high latitudes
observed over the last 24 hours. Elevated geomagnetic activity
over the last 24 hours and continuing into 17Feb will affect
high to mid latitude ionospheric support, with disturbed conditions
for high latitudes and notable depressed MUF's for mid latitudes
17-18Feb. Gradual ionospheric recovery expected to begin 19Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 50 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 55 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued
on 13 February and is current for 16-17 Feb. IPS SWF HF Communications
Warning 10 was issued on 16 February and is current for 16-17
Feb. Observed MUF's were near predicted monthly values over the
last 24 hours with enhanced MUFs observed for low latitude stations
Depressed MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ regions observed as well as
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Continued
elevated geomagnetic activity expected for the next 24-48 hours
should see MUF depressions of ~20% for Southern AUS/NZ and possibly
for Northern AUS regions. Continued disturbed ionospheric conditions
for Antarctic regions and MUFs near predicted monthly values
for low-latitude/equatorial regions. From 19Feb ionospheric support
expected to slowly return to near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 81000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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