[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 16 issued 2353 UT on 15 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 16 10:53:49 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 1100UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Very low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Probable
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
region 2497 (currently N11W58) the source of an M1.1 flare at
1100UT as well as numerous C-class flares. Confirmation of any
earth directed CME from the M-class flare via SOHO LASCO imagery
was not possible at the time of this report. Solar wind speed
has steadily increased from ~370km/s at 00UT to be currently
420km/s. An expected rise in the solar wind stream parameters
is expected on 16Feb due to the combined effects of recent CME
activity (11Feb C8.9 flare) and a large southward extended, southern
hemisphere located coronal hole's high speed solar wind stream.
The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-5 nT for the majority
of the UT day. Since 19UT Bz has remained southward and is -7nT
at the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to be
Low to Moderate with the possibility of more M-class flares.
The 11 Feb CME associated with the long duration C8.9 flare is
expected to arrive at Earth within the next 24 hrs (UT day 15
Feb).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 12322112
Cocos Island 4 11221012
Darwin 5 11222112
Townsville 7 12322122
Learmonth 6 11222113
Norfolk Island 5 11321012
Culgoora 7 12322113
Canberra 5 02321012
Launceston 9 12422113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 02223212
Casey 15 24532222
Mawson 20 44432215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1222 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 22 Active
17 Feb 16 Active
18 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 13 February
and is current for 14-16 Feb. Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed
over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Active conditions with possible
Minor Storm periods for 16Feb possible due to CME and anticipated
coronal hole effects. Quiet to Active conditions for 17Feb and
Quiet to Unsettled for 18Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were near the predicted monthly values
with notable enhancements for low latitudes. Depressed MUFs for
high to possible mid latitude regions expected for 16Feb-18Feb
due elevated geomagnetic activity over the next 48 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 45 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 45 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued
on 13 February and is current for 16-17 Feb. Observed MUF's were
near predicted monthly values with enhanced MUFs observed for
low latitude stations. Possible MUF depressions of -20% possible
for high to mid latitudes due to expected geomagnetic activity
on 16Feb-17Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 73200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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