[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 15 10:30:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1926UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 109/59 109/59 105/54
COMMENT: The solar activity was at moderate levels for the UT
day, 14 Feb, with one M-class flare and a number of smaller C-class
flares. Most of these flares were from active Region 2497, which
is currently located past the solar centre at N11W45. The strongest
M1.0 flare occurred at 14/1926 UT from Region 2497 and it did
not seem to trigger an earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME).
Due to flare potential from Region 2497, the 2-day outlook (15-16
Feb) is for low to moderate solar activity with C-class flares
likely and chance of more M-class flares. The 11 Feb CME associated
with the long duration C8.9 flare is expected to arrive at Earth
within the next 24 hrs (UT day 15 Feb). No other earth-directed
CME were observed on the satellite imagery during the past 24
hours. The solar wind has been steady, near 400 km/s during the
past 24 hrs. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -5
nT and 5 nT. Bt was between 5 and 10 nT. The outlook for UT day
15 Feb is for the solar winds to exhibit enhancement due to the
anticipated arrival of shock fronts from the 11 Feb CME. Elevated
levels of solar wind speeds are expected to continue on Day 2
(16 Feb) and Day 3 (Feb 16) as a large southern hemisphere coronal
hole approaches geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 12222311
Cocos Island 3 11111210
Darwin 7 12223311
Townsville 8 12223322
Learmonth 6 12222311
Norfolk Island 6 11222311
Culgoora 7 12223311
Canberra 6 02222311
Launceston 11 22333322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 13 02434420
Casey 21 45532322
Mawson 21 23433534
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1332 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 40 Minor Storm
16 Feb 20 Active
17 Feb 16 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 13 February
and is current for 14-16 Feb. The geomagnetic conditions were
mostly at quiet levels during the last 24 hours (14 Feb). The
outlook for UT day 15 Feb is for minor to moderate geomagnetic
conditions due to the anticipated arrival of 11 Feb CME. Auroral
sight could be possible on the local night of 15 Feb from southern
regions of Australia, including Tasmania and maybe Victoria.
The CME effects are expected to subside by UT day 17 Feb. However,
active conditions are expected to continue for slightly longer
periods as a large southern hemisphere coronal hole approaches
geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
16 Feb Fair Poor Poor
17 Feb Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 14 Feb were near the predicted
monthly values. On UT day 15 Feb, MUFs in the high latitude regions
are expected to enhance initially with the onset of geomagnetic
storm associated with 11 Feb CME. Later during the UT day, MUFs
in high latitude regions are expected to depress significantly.
MUFs in midlatitudes regions are expected to depress moderately
during the recovery phase of the storm (on UT day 16 Feb). No
significant changes are expected in low latitudes on UT day 15
Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued
on 13 February and is current for 16-17 Feb. IPS SWF HF Communications
Warning 9 was issued on 13 February and is current for 14-15
Feb. Observed MUF's for the UT day 14 Feb were above the monthly
predicted values. The outlook for 15 Feb is for MUFs to remain
near the monthly predicted levels. This is anticipated due to
enhancements in charge densities in F-region of the ionosphere
during the periods preceding the onset of geomagnetic storms.
MUF are expected to degrade below the monthly predicted levels
during the recovery phase (after UT day 16 Feb) of the geomagnetic
storms. Shortwave fades are possible due the flare potential
from Region 2497.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 77400 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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