[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 4 10:30:25 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels on 3 February. Four
low level C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C1.8
flare that peaked at 1524 UT. Solar wind speed showed a gradual
increase from ~350 km/s to ~420 km/s during the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF stayed negative up to around -9 nT during
the first four hours of the day and then turned positive. Bz
stayed mostly positive up to around 8 nT during most parts of
the remaining day. Solar wind may continue to stay at current
slightly stronger levels on 4 February due to the continued effect
of the currently geoeffective coronal hole. Low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22211212
Cocos Island 3 22101210
Darwin 4 22201211
Townsville 5 22211212
Learmonth 8 33211222
Norfolk Island 4 32100111
Culgoora 5 22211211
Canberra 4 22200103
Launceston 8 33311212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 34310000
Casey 13 34432122
Mawson 16 45422211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0010 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 6 Quiet
06 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Despite some expected strengthening in solar wind stream
parameters due to the coronal hole effect, geomagnetic conditions
stayed mostly at Quiet levels with some Unsettled periods. The
less than expected increase in geomagnetic activity levels seems
to have happened due to continued hours of IMF Bz being positive.
The effect of the currently geoeffective coronal hole may still
lead to some enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels up to
Unsettled and possibly isolated Active periods on 4 February
if Bz turns significantly negative for prolonged hours. Mostly
Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 5 and
6 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly normal on 3 February with
some periods of minor to significant MUF enhancements in the
low and mid latitude regions and minor MUF depressions in the
high latitude regions. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
and MUF depressions may be possible in this region due to the
possibility of some rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this
day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 5 and 6 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
05 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly normal on 3 February in
the Aus/NZ regions with some periods of minor to significant
MUF enhancements in the Northern regions and minor MUF depressions
in the Southern regions. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
and MUF depressions in Aus/NZ regions may be possible
due to the possibility of some rise in geomagnetic activity
levels on this day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
on 5 and 6 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 276 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 22500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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