[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 5 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at low levels on 4 February
with the most significant activity being a series of C-class
flares, the largest at C5.1 level (04/1822Z), from Region 2494
(S12E09). This region has shown rapid growth in both size and
complexity and currently has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration
with the potential to produce M-class flares over the next 24-48
hours. Solar wind speed remained elevated over 400km/s over the
day, but is expected to decline over the next 3 days. The Bz
component of IMF was largely positive (Northward-directed) over
the day limiting the geoeffectiveness of the enhanced solar wind.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 11122221
Cocos Island 3 11112110
Darwin 5 11122212
Townsville 6 12122222
Learmonth 6 11123221
Norfolk Island 5 21122211
Culgoora 5 12122221
Canberra 3 01122110
Launceston 7 12223222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 9 01135210
Casey 13 34333212
Mawson 10 22333311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 5531 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 5 Quiet
06 Feb 5 Quiet
07 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained mostly Quiet over the
previous 24 hours, as the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
remained oriented largely northwards (Bz positive), limiting
the impact of enhanced solar wind speeds. Expect mostly Quiet
conditions to continue 05-07 Feb, unless Bz turns significantly
negative for a prolonged period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 04-Feb, expected
to continue 05-07 Feb. Short wave fadeouts possible in the sunlit
hemisphere 05-06 Feb due to a rapidly developing solar active
region with increased flare potential.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 50
Mar 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Feb 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 4
February and is current for 5-6 Feb. MUFS were generally enhanced
over predicted monthly values at all latitudes during the last
24 hours (04 Feb). The most significant enhancements were seen
overnight and immediately after local dawn. Enhanced MUFs are
expected to continue 05-07 Feb. Short wave fadeouts possible
in the sunlit hemisphere 05-06 Feb due to a rapidly developing
solar active region with increased flare potential.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 69000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list