[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 3 10:30:27 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Feb             04 Feb             05 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels on 2 February. Today's 
largest event was a C1.2 flare that peaked at 1452 UT. Solar 
wind speed stayed around 270 km/s until 1400 UT and then showed 
a gradual increase to 370 km/s by 2300 UT today. The Bz component 
of IMF stayed close to the normal value until around 1400 UT 
and then showed variations between +/-8 nT during the remaining 
parts of the day. Solar wind may get further strength today due 
to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal 
hole. Very low levels of solar activity, with the possibility 
of isolated C-class flare, may be expected for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11112322
      Cocos Island         4   11111222
      Darwin               6   21112322
      Townsville           8   11112333
      Learmonth            6   11112322
      Norfolk Island       3   01001222
      Culgoora             6   10112323
      Canberra             3   00001222
      Launceston           8   11212333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     5   00113312
      Casey               15   43432223
      Mawson              11   23222324

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3333 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Feb    15    Quiet to Active
04 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled, isolated active periods possible
05 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels on 2 February. The effect of a high speed solar wind stream 
from a coronal hole may increase the activity to Active levels 
on 3 February and Unsettled levels with the possibility of isolated 
Active periods on 4 February. Geomagnetic activity is then expected 
to decline to Unsettled and then to Quiet levels on 5 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
04 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly normal on 2 February. Minor 
to mild degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions may 
be possible on 3 and 4 February due to an expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels on these days. HF conditions are expected to 
return to normal levels on 5 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Feb    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Feb    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
04 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
05 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly normal on 2 February in 
the Aus/NZ regions. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions 
and MUF depressions may be possible in this region on 3 and 4 
February due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
on these days. HF conditions are expected to return to normal 
levels on 5 February in the region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 297 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    31600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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