[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 2 10:30:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at low levels on 1 February. Today's
largest flare was a C1.6 flare that peaked at 0114 UT. Solar
wind speed stayed between 270 and 300 km/s during most parts
of the UT day today, whereas the Bz component of IMF stayed negative
up to around -6 nT until around 0800 UT and then turned positive
and stayed slightly positive during the remaining parts of the
day. Solar wind stream may get some strength from late hours
on 3 February as the earth is expected to enter a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole around this time. Very
low levels of solar activity, with the possibility of isolated
C-class activity, may be expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22220001
Cocos Island 2 21120000
Darwin 3 12220000
Townsville 4 22220101
Learmonth 5 22230101
Norfolk Island 2 22110001
Culgoora 4 2--20121
Canberra 3 12220000
Launceston 5 22330000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 13330000
Casey 7 23331101
Mawson 14 34531101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 5 Quiet
03 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at Quiet levels on 1 February.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 2 February. The
effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole
may increase the activity to unsettled levels on 3 February and
unsettled to active levels on 4 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions were observed on 1 February. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected on 2 and 3 February. Little more degradations
in HF conditions and MUF depressions may be possible on 4 February
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this
day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 60
Feb 61
Mar 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
03 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
04 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions were observed on 1 February in the Aus/NZ regions.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected in this region on 2
and 3 February. Little more degradations in HF conditions and
MUF depressions may be possible in this region on 4 February
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this
day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 282 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 17000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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