[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 December 16 issued 2351 UT on 06 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 7 10:51:50 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery.
Very Low to Low activity is expected for the next 2 days, 7-8
December. The solar wind rose from 330 to 380 km/s. The IMF total
strength peaked around 10 nT. The Bz component varied from -10
to +8 nT, with a prolonged period of southward IMF Bz starting
from 06/0930UT to 06/1330UT. Solar wind speed is likely to continue
to increase over the next 3 days, 7-9 December, under the influence
of a large recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole. In the
previous rotation, this coronal hole caused solar wind speeds
to be in excess of 500 km/s for 4 consecutive days. Similar effects
are expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 21224212
Cocos Island 6 11223211
Darwin 8 21224211
Townsville 11 21334222
Learmonth 11 21235202
Alice Springs 7 20224201
Norfolk Island 7 11224112
Gingin 8 21224212
Camden 8 11324112
Canberra 8 11324111
Launceston 12 21325222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 14 11136211
Casey 17 33534222
Mawson 19 33234335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 20 Active
08 Dec 16 Active to Minor Storm
09 Dec 25 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 5 December
and is current for 7-9 Dec. Magnetic activity was Quiet to Active
across the Australian region on 6-Dec. The Australian Dst dipped
to a minimum of -20nT at ~06/1400UT. This was due to a prolonged
period of southward Bz. Active to Minor Storm periods are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 7-9 Dec. This is in response to high
speed solar wind streams emanating from a large southern hemisphere
coronal hole now taking a geoeffective location on the solar
disk. Auroras may be visible on the local nights of 8 and 9 December
in Tasmania and possibly the coastline of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels
over the mid- and low-latitude regions during UT day 6 December.
Minor depressions occurred in the high-latitude regions. Similar
HF conditions are expected today, 7 December, with minor depressions
possibly extending into the mid-latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values with Minor depressions
during the local day on 6-Dec. Sporadic-E were observed over
a number of Australian ionosonde sites. Similar conditions are
expected for the next two days (7-8 Dec). On 9 Dec, minor depressions
in MUF are expected due to the forecasted active geomagnetic
conditions on 7-8 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 20800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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