[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 December 16 issued 2343 UT on 07 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 8 10:43:13 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Dec             08 Dec             09 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. 
Very Low to Low activity is expected for the next 2 days, 7-8 
December. The solar wind rose from 330 to 380 km/s. The IMF total 
strength peaked around 10 nT. The Bz component varied from -10 
to +8 nT, with a prolonged period of southward IMF Bz starting 
from 06/0930UT to 06/1330UT. Solar wind speed is likely to continue 
to increase over the next 3 days, 7-9 December, under the influence 
of a large recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole. In the 
previous rotation, this coronal hole caused solar wind speeds 
to be in excess of 500 km/s for 4 consecutive days. Similar effects 
are expected in this rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21224212
      Cocos Island         6   11223211
      Darwin               8   21224212
      Townsville          11   21334222
      Learmonth           11   21235202
      Alice Springs        7   20224202
      Norfolk Island       7   11224112
      Gingin               8   21224212
      Camden               8   11324112
      Canberra             8   11324112
      Launceston          12   21325222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    14   11136211
      Casey               18   33534223
      Mawson              19   33234335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Dec    20    Active
08 Dec    16    Active to Minor Storm
09 Dec    25    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 5 December 
and is current for 7-9 Dec. Magnetic activity was Quiet to Active 
across the Australian region on 6-Dec. The Australian Dst dipped 
to a minimum of -20nT at ~06/1400UT. This was due to a prolonged 
period of southward Bz. Active to Minor Storm periods are expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 7-9 Dec. This is in response to high 
speed solar wind streams emanating from a large southern hemisphere 
coronal hole now taking a geoeffective location on the solar 
disk. Auroras may be visible on the local nights of 8 and 9 December 
in Tasmania and possibly the coastline of Victoria.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
08 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
09 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels 
over the mid- and low-latitude regions during UT day 6 December. 
Minor depressions occurred in the high-latitude regions. Similar 
HF conditions are expected today, 7 December, with minor depressions 
possibly extending into the mid-latitude regions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Dec     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      24
Jan      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
09 Dec     0    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values with Minor depressions 
during the local day on 6-Dec. Sporadic-E were observed over 
a number of Australian ionosonde sites. Similar conditions are 
expected for the next two days (7-8 Dec). On 9 Dec, minor depressions 
in MUF are expected due to the forecasted active geomagnetic 
conditions on 7-8 Dec.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 310 km/sec  Density:   10.7 p/cc  Temp:    20800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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