[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 December 16 issued 2336 UT on 05 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 6 10:36:43 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C1 X-ray flare from region 2615 (S07W31). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Low activity is expected for the next 3 days.
The solar wind rose from 280 to 330 km/s. The IMF total strength
peaked around 9 nT, currently neutral. The Bz component varied
-5 to +7 nT. Solar wind speed is likely to increase under the
influence of a large southern hemisphere coronal hole from late
7-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22002222
Cocos Island 3 12012111
Darwin 4 22002212
Townsville 4 22002212
Learmonth 6 22002322
Alice Springs 4 22002212
Norfolk Island 4 22002112
Gingin 2 20001211
Camden 4 12002222
Canberra 4 12002222
Launceston 7 22002233
Hobart 2 120010--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 11000122
Casey 12 34332222
Mawson 10 43112223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 5 Quiet
07 Dec 12 Quite, with late minor storm.
08 Dec 20 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Magnetic activity was quiet across the Australian region
on 5-Dec. Quiet conditions are expected in Australia on 6-Dec,
with conditions becoming disturbed from late 7-Dec due to coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
07 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
08 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 5
December and is current for 5-6 Dec. MUFs were near monthly predicted
values on 5-Dec. Some mild depressions are likely over the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 280 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 7980 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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