[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 26 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 27 09:30:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 540 to 440 km/s
during this time (UT day 26 August). The north-south component
of IMF, Bz varied mostly between +/-5 nT during this time, staying
northwards for relatively longer periods of time. The solar wind
parameters may be expected to further weaken on 27 August. The
effect of a solar sector boundary on 28 August and that of a
coronal hole from 29 August, may strengthen the solar wind stream
again. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three days (27, 28 and 29 August) with some possibility
of isolated C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21101221
Cocos Island 3 21110120
Townsville 4 22101221
Learmonth 3 21100221
Alice Springs 3 21000221
Norfolk Island 2 21000110
Gingin 4 21000231
Camden 4 21101221
Canberra 3 21001221
Launceston 4 21101222
Hobart 3 21001221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 21001111
Casey 12 44311231
Mawson 22 42111265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2123 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 5 Quiet
28 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Aug 12 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity mostly stayed at quiet levels on
26 August. The solar wind stream is still going at moderate levels,
but is expected to weaken through the UT days 27 August. Quiet
levels of geomagnetic activity are expected to continue on 27
August. Geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled levels on
28 August due to the effect of a solar sector boundary, and to
active levels on 29 August due to the effect of a high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
29 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were observed during
the UT day, 26 August. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
on 27 and 28 August. Mild to moderate depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions may be observed on 29 August due
to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were observed in most
parts of Australian/NZ regions during the UT day, 26 August.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 27 and 28 August
in this region. Mild to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in this region on 29 August
due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 282000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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