[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 27 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 28 09:30:22 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 460 to 420 km/s
during this time (UT day 27 August). The north-south component
of IMF, Bz varied mostly between +/-4 nT during this time. The
solar wind parameters may be expected to further weaken on 28
August. The effect of a solar sector boundary late on 28 August
and that of a coronal hole from 29 August, may strengthen the
solar wind stream again. Solar activity is expected to stay at
very low levels for the next three days (28, 29 and 30 August)
with some possibility of isolated C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12120100
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Townsville 4 22121111
Learmonth 2 12120100
Alice Springs 3 22020001
Norfolk Island 2 12010010
Gingin 2 11020110
Camden 2 12120000
Canberra 1 11020000
Launceston 3 22121100
Hobart 2 12120100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 12030000
Casey 10 34321112
Mawson 8 34222011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3201 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 6 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible
29 Aug 25 Unsettled to minor storm
30 Aug 25 Unsettled to minor storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity mostly stayed at quiet levels on
27 August. Solar wind stream is still going at moderate levels,
but is expected to further weaken through the UT day 28 August.
Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity are expected to continue
through most parts of 28 August with some possibility of rising
to unsettled levels in the late hours of the day due to the effect
of crossing a solar sector boundary. Geomagnetic activity may
rise to active and minor storm levels on 29 and 30 August due
to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
29 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
30 Aug Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed during
the UT day, 27 August. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
on 28 August. Mild to significant depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed on 29 and 30 August due to expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed in most
parts of Australian/NZ regions during the UT day, 27 August.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 28 August in this
region. Mild to significant depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in this region on 29 and 30
August due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on
these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 281000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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