[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 21 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 22 09:30:24 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day 21 Aug.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available SOHO coronagraph imagery during
the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed increased from 300 to
430km/s during the UT day, currently around 400km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field had notable southward excursions
reaching -10 nT ~1300UT while B total increased from 5 to 10nT.
Expect a moderate increase in the solar wind speed late on 23
Aug due to the arrival of a high speed stream associated with
a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 01012311
Cocos Island 4 01112302
Townsville 5 11112312
Learmonth 4 01012311
Alice Springs 3 01012301
Norfolk Island 3 11002211
Gingin 4 01002302
Camden 5 11112311
Canberra 3 00002311
Launceston 5 11012312
Hobart 3 01002311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 00002400
Casey 9 22222323
Mawson 11 11112235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2221 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 7 Quiet
23 Aug 15 Quiet to Active
24 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region with one isolated Unsettled period ~ 1500UT in response
to a Bz southward excursion around 1300UT. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected to prevail until coronal hole effects come into
play late on 23 Aug, bringing Unsettled levels and at times approaching
Active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate depressions were observed in northern
Australian and equatorial regions during the UT day 21 Aug. MUFs
were near predicted monthly values for southern Australia. MUFs
were near predicted monthly values for the Antarctic region with
periods of little ionospheric support for HF communications.
Noted periods sporadic E at Cocos Island station. Similar conditions
are likely to continue during the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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