[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 20 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 21 09:30:19 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day 20 Aug. 
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days 
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available SOHO coronagraph imagery during 
the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed declined to ~300 km/s 
during the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field varied between +/-5nT and the B total ranged between 5-8 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal levels 
21-22 Aug. Expect a moderate increase in the solar wind speed 
on 23 Aug due to the arrival of a high speed stream associated 
with a coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   21100000
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Townsville           3   22210001
      Learmonth            1   21100000
      Alice Springs        1   11100000
      Norfolk Island       1   11100000
      Gingin               1   21100000
      Camden               3   22210000
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Launceston           2   21111000
      Hobart               1   11101000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   11101000
      Casey                6   33311100
      Mawson              17   63211104

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1011 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug     7    Quiet
22 Aug     7    Quiet
23 Aug    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian 
region on 20 Aug and are expected to remain mostly Quiet 21-22 
Aug. Conditions are expected to reach Unsettled levels and at 
times approaching Active levels from 23 Aug due to an increase 
in the solar wind speed.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
22 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
23 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed in northern Australian 
and equatorial regions during the UT day 20 Aug. MUFs were near 
predicted monthly values for southern Australia. MUFs were near 
predicted monthly values for the Antarctic region with periods 
of little ionospheric support for HF communications. Noted periods 
sporadic E at Cocos Island station. Similar conditions are likely 
to continue during the next few days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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