[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 19 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 20 09:30:34 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day 19 Aug. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with
a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available SOHO coronagraph imagery during the
last 24 hours. DSCOVR spacecraft showed the solar wind speed
remained around 350km/s during the UT day. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/-5nT. Meanwhile
Bt was steady near 6 nT during the last 24 hours. Expect an increase
in the solar wind speed today 20 Aug, due to anticipated arrival
of a high speed stream associated with a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 00112110
Cocos Island 2 01111110
Townsville 3 11112111
Learmonth 3 10112120
Alice Springs 2 00112010
Norfolk Island 1 10101000
Gingin 2 00112120
Camden 2 01112110
Canberra 1 00102010
Launceston 3 01113020
Hobart 2 00112010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00113110
Casey 6 22312120
Mawson 13 21221335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2311 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 15 Quiet to Active
21 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region on 19 August. Conditions are expected to reach Unsettled
levels and at times approaching Active levels 20-21 August due
to an increase in the solar wind speed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the north on 19
Aug. MUFs were near monthly predicted values otherwise. Periods
of sporadic-E were observed at Cocos Island 20-21 UT. Degradations
in HF conditions are likely 20-21 due to continued low levels
of ionising radiation and the anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 305000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list