[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 23 09:30:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 440 to 360 km/s
during this period, whereas the north-south component of IMF,
Bz varied between +/-5 nT, staying southwards for relatively
longer periods of time. Nearly similar conditions of solar wind
may be expected on 23 August. The effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a negative polarity coronal hole may strengthen
the solar wind stream from 24 August. Solar activity is expected
to stay at Very Low levels for the next three days with some
possibility of isolated C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11110200
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Townsville 4 21111212
Learmonth 2 21100210
Alice Springs 1 11100100
Norfolk Island 1 11000100
Gingin 2 20100210
Camden 2 11111101
Canberra 2 11010200
Launceston 4 21111211
Hobart 2 11101200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 10110100
Casey 6 33211110
Mawson 12 33211251
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 0001 3423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 6 Quiet
24 Aug 12 Quiet to Active
25 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today (22
August, UT day). Nearly similar conditions may be expected for
23 August. Geomagnetic activity may rise to Active levels on
24 and 25 August as the earth is expected to pass through a high
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole during this time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
25 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were observed in the
equatorial regions during the UT day, 22 August. MUFs were near
predicted monthly values for mid and high latitude locations.
Nearly similar HF conditions are likely to continue on 23 August.
Further depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed on 24 and 25 August due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Aug 22 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were observed in Northern
Australian and equatorial regions during the UT day, 22 August.
MUFs were near predicted monthly values for Southern Australian/NZ
and Antarctic regions. Nearly similar HF conditions are likely
to continue on 23 August. Further depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed on 24 and 25 August due to expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 10.6 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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