[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 August 16 issued 2333 UT on 15 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 16 09:33:51 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 15 Aug, with
only two weak C-class (C1) flares from AR 2578(N08E61). Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days.
SOHO LASCO imagery recorded a CME from the NE limb ~1748UT ,
it is not Earth-directed. The solar wind speed declined to ~380
km/s during the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly
positive (Northward) during the UT day. A southern hemisphere
coronal hole, could disturb solar wind parameters from late on
today,16 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 00101000
Cocos Island 0 00100000
Townsville 2 11201001
Learmonth 0 00101000
Alice Springs 0 00100001
Norfolk Island 0 00100000
Gingin 1 00101101
Camden 1 10101000
Canberra 0 10100000
Launceston 2 11211100
Hobart 1 00111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00220000
Casey 4 22220101
Mawson 13 42221125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2110 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 15 Quiet to Active
17 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region on 15 Aug. A coronal hole may have an impact on Earth
late today, 16 Aug, resulting in increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for today, 16 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 40 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed to near monthly predicted MUF's were
observed during the last 24 hours. Slightly improved MUFs are
expected today 16 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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