[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 August 16 issued 2336 UT on 14 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 15 09:36:32 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 
14 August, with only one weak C-class (C1.1) flare and few B-class 
flares. The two day outlook (15-16 August) is for very low levels 
of solar activity with chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery during 
the last 24 hours. The solar winds declined from ~450 km/s to 
near ambient level of ~380 km/s during the UT day. The Bz component 
of the IMF was mostly positive (Northward) during the UT day 
and reached a peak value of +5 nT. Meanwhile Bt was steady near 
5 nT during the last 24 hours. The two day outlook (15-16 August) 
is for the solar winds to gradually enhance as a recurrent coronal 
hole is expected to become geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1110----
      Cocos Island         2   1110----
      Townsville           4   2210----
      Learmonth            3   1120----
      Alice Springs        2   1110----
      Norfolk Island       1   1100----
      Gingin               3   1120----
      Camden               2   1110----
      Canberra             2   1110----
      Launceston           3   2110----
      Hobart               2   1110----    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   0000----
      Casey               10   2331----
      Mawson               8   3221----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2211 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Aug    20    Active
17 Aug    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region 
were mostly near quiet levels on UT day 14 August. The outlook 
for today (15 August) is for mostly quiet and at times unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions. However, on UT day 16 August geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to reach active levels and at times approaching 
minor storm levels as high speed streams from a recurrent coronal 
hole becomes geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
14 August. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 15 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Aug    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Slightly depressed to near monthly predicted MUF's were 
observed over most Australasia regions during the last 24 hours 
(14 August) with the largest depressions noticed over the Northern 
Australian regions. HF conditions are expected to remain at similar 
levels today (15 August). Much improved HF conditions are expected 
tomorrow, 16 August, Day 1 of possible active conditions associated 
with the approaching coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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