[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 August 16 issued 2335 UT on 16 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Aug 17 09:35:42 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug:  87/30

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 16 Aug. 
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next 
3 days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed 
was ambient until 16UT, when the Earth (as expected) entered 
a southern hemisphere coronal hole, wind stream; solar wind speed 
gradually rose from 300km/s to 350 km/s at time of this report 
issue. The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field became mildly southward (5-12nT) around 2000UT. Also, the 
phi angle showed a 180 degree flip around this time. Expect further 
increase in the solar wind speed today 17 Aug, due to coronal 
hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   00002112
      Cocos Island         3   01012112
      Townsville           4   10102213
      Learmonth            3   00002212
      Alice Springs        3   00002212
      Norfolk Island       2   00002012
      Gingin               2   00002202
      Camden               2   00002112
      Canberra             2   00002102
      Launceston           3   00012202
      Hobart               2   00002102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   00013001
      Casey                4   22211102
      Mawson              12   31102235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1121 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug    15    Quiet to Active
18 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian 
region on 16 Aug. Geomagnetic conditions may reach Unsettled 
levels and at times approaching Active levels today, 17 Aug due 
to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for today, 17 Aug.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Aug    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Slightly depressed to near monthly predicted MUF's were 
observed over most Australasia regions during the last 24 hours. 
Mostly normal HF conditions for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 319 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    25200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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