[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 10 09:30:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
the largest event being a C8 X-ray flare from region 2574 (N07E51).
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected
to be low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined
to 460 km/s before increasing again, peaking at 670 km/s, currently
around 610 km/s. The IMF total strength peaked around 9 nT before
drifting down, currently around 4 nT. The Bz component dipped
to around -7 nT several times during the period 9-12 UT, but
is currently neutral. The solar wind speed is likely to decline
from late 10-Aug as coronal hole influence wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 23233313
Cocos Island 7 22133202
Townsville 10 23233312
Learmonth 10 23233312
Alice Springs 11 23233313
Norfolk Island 8 12233212
Culgoora 11 23232323
Gingin 11 13133323
Camden 11 13233313
Canberra 11 23233313
Launceston 15 23244323
Hobart 13 23243323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 22 13255512
Casey 31 34333723
Mawson 35 23354427
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 4222 2432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 7 August and
is current for 8-10 Aug. Magnetic conditions across Australia
were mostly quiet on 9-Aug, with unsettled conditions 9-18 UT,
reaching active levels in Tasmania. Conditions reached storm
levels in the Antarctic. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
in Australia for the next 3 days, with unsettled periods possible
10-11 Aug. Active periods are likely at high latitudes on 10-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days. Some degraded periods at high latitudes are likely
on 10-Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions were observed in the north
on 9-Aug. Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly predicted values,
as they are expected to be for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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