[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 9 09:30:17 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Aug             10 Aug             11 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C-class X-ray flares from regions 2571 (N13W31), 2572 (N13W88) 
and 2574 (N05E66). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar 
activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next 3 days. 
The solar wind speed declined to around 455 km/s, then rose to 
peak around 540 km/s, currently 507 km/s. The IMF total strength 
increased from 4 nT to around 8 nT, currently 7 nT. The Bz component 
dipped to -7 nT after 14 UT, currently +6 nT. The solar wind 
speed is likely to decline on 9-Aug, increasing again on 10-Aug 
due to a northern hemisphere coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22222420
      Cocos Island         4   11121220
      Townsville           8   21223321
      Learmonth            8   22222420
      Alice Springs        7   22222320
      Norfolk Island       6   21122320
      Culgoora             9   22223322
      Gingin               9   32212420
      Camden               9   22223420
      Canberra             9   22123420
      Launceston          12   22223520
      Hobart               9   22223420    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    10   21224420
      Casey               11   33232322
      Mawson              26   54333630

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10   4211 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
10 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
11 Aug    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 7 August and 
is current for 8-10 Aug. Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet 
across the Australian region on 8-Aug, with a brief unsettled 
to active period 15-18 UT following a dip in IMF Bz. Quiet to 
unsettled conditions are expected in Australia for the next 3 
days, with active periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days, with degraded periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Aug    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild nighttime depressions were observed across the 
Australian region on 8-Aug. Overall, MUFs have increased, most 
likely due to an increase in EUV radiation, and are expected 
to be near monthly predicted values over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 545 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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