[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 10 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 11 09:30:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Low activity is expected
for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed peaked at 685 km/s,
currently around 620 km/s. The total IMF strength rose slightly,
peaking around 6 nT. The Bz component varied between +/-5 nT,
with a negative bias. The solar wind speed is expected to decline
during 11-12 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 23342222
Cocos Island 8 2-331222
Townsville 11 23342222
Learmonth 14 23342333
Alice Springs 9 22332222
Norfolk Island 9 22341221
Culgoora 10 22342222
Gingin 14 23342333
Camden 11 23342222
Canberra 10 22342222
Launceston 16 23452223
Hobart 14 22452222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 25 22662312
Casey 19 44442422
Mawson 61 55543385
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 12 2323 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled across
the Australian region on 10-Aug, with an active period 6-12 UT,
reaching minor storm levels in Tasmania, likely due to southward
Bz. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the
Australian region for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days, with some degraded periods at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed in the north on 9-Aug.
Sporadic-E 15-16 UT at Cocos Is. MUFs were near monthly predicted
values otherwise, as they are expected to be for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 595 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 180000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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