[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 4 09:30:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels on UT day
3 August, with no flare activity. The two day outlook (4-5 August)
is for very low levels of solar activity with a very small chance
of C-class flares. An erupting solar filament of length approximately
15 degrees was observed near N25E20 at 03/1640 UT on the Gong
H-Alpha imagery. At the time of writing, the relevant coronagraph
imagery were not available to determine if this event has triggered
an earth-directed CME. Based on the available solar wind data
from the DSCOVR spacecraft, the solar winds were at moderately
elevated levels of between 400 km/s and 500 km/s throughout the
UT day. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -20 nT
and +20 nT, turning strongly southward at near 03/0400 UT. Meanwhile
Bt reached a peak level of 30 nT during the UT day. These solar
wind enhancements and the Bz perturbations are caused by high
speed streams from a large positive polarity equatorial coronal
hole. The two day outlook (4 - 5 August) is for the solar winds
to remain at elevated levels in response to the coronal hole
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to minor
storm levels
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 17 33444322
Cocos Island 14 23343421
Darwin 16 33443322
Townsville 17 33444321
Learmonth 15 33343421
Alice Springs 17 33444322
Norfolk Island 15 33443311
Culgoora 14 23343323
Gingin 23 33354532
Canberra 20 33454322
Launceston 30 33465433
Hobart 21 33454332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 36 33565542
Casey 23 35343352
Mawson 68 56654756
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 16 1212 3355
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 20 Active
05 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
06 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 2 August and
is current for 3-4 Aug. The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian
region were initially quiet and then reached minor levels at
near 03/1100 UT. The Australian Dst index dipped to a minimum
of -130 nT at 03/1100 UT. These active conditions are due to
high speed streams from a large positive polarity equatorial
coronal hole. The two day outlook (4 - 5 August) for mostly unsettled
to active geomagnetic conditions and at times reaching minor
storm levels since very strong solar wind speeds of greater than
500 km/s are expected to emanate from this coronal. There is
a slight chance that aurora may be visible on the local nights
of 4 August from Tasmania and some parts of Victoria, Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Strong MUF depressions were observed over the Northern
Hemisphere regions. Depression are expected to persist in the
high and mid latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere today,
4 August, in response to the active geomagnetic conditions associated
with the coronal hole. The Southern Hemisphere is also expected
to experience moderately depressed HF conditions in the high
and mid latitude regions today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 18 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 18 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 23 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near monthly predicted MUF's were observed over all
Australasia regions during the last 24 hours (3 August) with
isolated depression over the Northern Australian region. These
conditions are expected on Day 1 of storms during winter months
over the Southern Hemisphere. However, HF conditions are expected
to become depressed on 4 and 5 August (Day 2 and Day 3 after
storms), as the storm-associated negative effects began to dominate.
Near monthly predicted HF condition are expected from 6 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 35600 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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