[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 5 09:30:22 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 
4 August, with no notable flare activity. The two day outlook 
(5-6 August) is for very low levels of solar activity with a 
very small chance of C-class flares. An erupting solar filament 
of length approximately 15 degrees observed near N25E20 at 03/1640 
UT appears to have triggered a CME. Based on the model fit to 
available LASCO imagery data, it was found that this is a very 
slow moving CME with an estimated shock speed on 233 km/s and 
may cause a glancing blow at earth on 7 August or thereabout. 
The ACE spacecraft solar wind measurements for the UT day 4 August 
indicate that the solar winds were larger than 500 km/s throughout 
the UT day and reached peak levels of 650 km/s at near 04/1200 
UT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -8 nT and 
+5 nT. Meanwhile Bt was steady near 8 nT during the UT day. These 
high solar wind speeds are caused by high speed streams from 
a large positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. The two day 
outlook (5 - 6 August) is for the solar winds to remain at these 
elevated levels as the coronal hole effects persists.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   23334331
      Cocos Island         9   23223320
      Townsville          15   33334331
      Learmonth           13   23234331
      Alice Springs       13   23334321
      Norfolk Island      10   23333221
      Culgoora            13   33223333
      Gingin              14   23234431
      Canberra            13   23334231
      Launceston          19   33345332
      Hobart              14   23334332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    34   33556532
      Casey               14   34333322
      Mawson              42   54453663

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            49   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             31   5455 5433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
06 Aug    12    Unsettled
07 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region 
reached active levels on UT day 4 August. These active conditions 
are due to very high solar speed streams of greater 500 km/s 
emanating from a large positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. 
The two day outlook (5 - 6 August) for mostly unsettled to active 
geomagnetic conditions and at times could reach minor storm levels 
since very strong solar wind speeds of greater than 500 km/s 
are expected to continue over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Strong MUF depressions were observed in the Northern 
Hemisphere regions on UT day 4 August. Depression are expected 
to persist in the high and mid latitude regions of the Northern 
Hemisphere today, 5 August since the moderately active geomagnetic 
conditions associated with the coronal hole are expected to continue. 
The Southern Hemisphere is also expected to experience moderately 
depressed HF conditions in the high and mid latitude regions 
today.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Aug    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug    15    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Aug    17    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Moderately depressed MUF's were observed over most Australasia 
regions during the last 24 hours (4 August) with strong depression 
over the Southern Australian region. These conditions are a result 
of negative ionospheric storm effects associated with the 3 August 
storms. HF conditions are expected to remain depressed today 
and tomorrow (5 - 6 August) as the ionosphere gradually recovers 
from the 3 August storms. Near monthly predicted HF condition 
are expected from 7 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 532 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   153000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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