[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 5 09:30:22 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels on UT day
4 August, with no notable flare activity. The two day outlook
(5-6 August) is for very low levels of solar activity with a
very small chance of C-class flares. An erupting solar filament
of length approximately 15 degrees observed near N25E20 at 03/1640
UT appears to have triggered a CME. Based on the model fit to
available LASCO imagery data, it was found that this is a very
slow moving CME with an estimated shock speed on 233 km/s and
may cause a glancing blow at earth on 7 August or thereabout.
The ACE spacecraft solar wind measurements for the UT day 4 August
indicate that the solar winds were larger than 500 km/s throughout
the UT day and reached peak levels of 650 km/s at near 04/1200
UT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -8 nT and
+5 nT. Meanwhile Bt was steady near 8 nT during the UT day. These
high solar wind speeds are caused by high speed streams from
a large positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. The two day
outlook (5 - 6 August) is for the solar winds to remain at these
elevated levels as the coronal hole effects persists.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 14 23334331
Cocos Island 9 23223320
Townsville 15 33334331
Learmonth 13 23234331
Alice Springs 13 23334321
Norfolk Island 10 23333221
Culgoora 13 33223333
Gingin 14 23234431
Canberra 13 23334231
Launceston 19 33345332
Hobart 14 23334332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 34 33556532
Casey 14 34333322
Mawson 42 54453663
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 31 5455 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
06 Aug 12 Unsettled
07 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region
reached active levels on UT day 4 August. These active conditions
are due to very high solar speed streams of greater 500 km/s
emanating from a large positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.
The two day outlook (5 - 6 August) for mostly unsettled to active
geomagnetic conditions and at times could reach minor storm levels
since very strong solar wind speeds of greater than 500 km/s
are expected to continue over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Strong MUF depressions were observed in the Northern
Hemisphere regions on UT day 4 August. Depression are expected
to persist in the high and mid latitude regions of the Northern
Hemisphere today, 5 August since the moderately active geomagnetic
conditions associated with the coronal hole are expected to continue.
The Southern Hemisphere is also expected to experience moderately
depressed HF conditions in the high and mid latitude regions
today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 17 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderately depressed MUF's were observed over most Australasia
regions during the last 24 hours (4 August) with strong depression
over the Southern Australian region. These conditions are a result
of negative ionospheric storm effects associated with the 3 August
storms. HF conditions are expected to remain depressed today
and tomorrow (5 - 6 August) as the ionosphere gradually recovers
from the 3 August storms. Near monthly predicted HF condition
are expected from 7 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 532 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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