[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 3 09:30:27 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 2 August, with no flare activity. There is only one visible 
sunspot region on the solar disk, Region 2570 which is currently 
located at N10E01. The two day outlook (3-4 August) is for very 
low levels of solar activity with a very small chance of C-class 
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed increased from the 
background levels of 300 km/s at the beginning of the UT day 
to a peak value of ~450 km/s at 19 UT. From thereafter the solar 
wind has been gradually declining. The Bz component of the IMF 
fluctuated between -10 nT and +10 nT, turning southward between 
02/1930 and 02/2230 UT. Meanwhile Bt showed a increasing trend 
throughout the UT day. BT was near 20 nT at the time of writing. 
These solar wind enhancements and the Bz perturbations are thought 
to be associated with the 28 July slow moving CME triggered by 
disappearing solar filament. The two day outlook (3 - 4 August) 
is for the solar winds to further enhance in response to the 
approaching high speed streams from a large positive polarity 
equatorial coronal hole. In the previous rotation, the daily 
mean solar wind speeds were greater than 500 km/s for at least 
7 consecutive days during the passage of this coronal holes. 
Similar effects are expected in this rotations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Initially quiet, 
later active

Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   02222334
      Cocos Island        12   13222334
      Darwin              12   13222334
      Townsville          14   13223344
      Learmonth            9   02222333
      Alice Springs       10   02222334
      Norfolk Island       8   02222233
      Culgoora             8   -2222223
      Gingin              10   02222334
      Canberra             6   02122223
      Launceston           9   02222324
      Hobart               6   02121223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   00000112
      Casey               10   13411114
      Mawson              18   42222226

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   2100 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug    30    Active to Minor Storm
04 Aug    25    Active
05 Aug    20    Active

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region 
were initially quiet and reached active levels towards the end 
of the UT day (August 2). The active conditions were associated 
with moderately strong solar wind speeds of 450 km/s and a prolonged 
southward Bz, which were thought to be caused by the passage 
of the 28 July CME over earth. The outlook for today (3 August) 
is for the geomagnetic activity to be mostly near active levels 
and at times reaching moderate storm levels in response to the 
expected arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed 
by the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed 
stream (CH HSS). The outlook for 4 and 5 August is for mostly 
active geomagnetic conditions and at times reaching minor storm 
levels since very strong solar wind speeds of greater than 500 
km/s are expected to emanate from this coronal. The aurora may 
be visible on the local nights of 3 August from Tasmania and 
some parts of Victoria, Australia.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
04 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
05 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions were observed across the mid 
and high latitudes regions on 2 August, with the Northern Hemisphere 
exhibiting stronger depression. Even stronger depression are 
expected in the high and mid latitude regions of the Northern 
Hemisphere today, 3 August, in response to the forecasted active 
geomagnetic conditions. Slightly weaker depression are expected 
for the Southern Hemisphere today.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Aug    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug    10    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Aug    15    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressed MUF's were observed over all Australasia regions 
during the last 24 hours (2 August) with isolated enhancements 
over some Southern AUS/NZ regions and over the South Pacific 
Oceans. Slightly improved MUFs though still below the monthly 
predicted levels are expected today (3 August) over the Australasia 
region due to the forecasted active geomagnetic conditions. During 
winter months, the Southern hemisphere regions are expected to 
experience better HF conditions on Day 1 of storms. However, 
HF conditions are expected to become depressed again on 4 and 
5 August (Day 2 and Day 3 after storms), as the storm-associated 
negative effects began to dominate. Near monthly predicted HF 
condition are expected to occur from 6 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    43800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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