[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 August 16 issued 2334 UT on 01 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 2 09:34:54 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Very low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 1 August, with no flare activity. There is only one visible
sunspot region on the solar disk, Region 2570 which is currently
located at N10E13. The two day outlook (2-3 August) is for very
low solar activity with very small chance of C-class flares.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. The solar wind speeds remained at near background levels
of 350 km/s throughout the UT day 1 August. The Bz component
of IMF had fluctuated rapidly between -4 and +4 nT during the
last 8 hours of the UT day. Meanwhile Bt was steady near 5 nT.
The outlook for today, 2 August, is for the solar winds to remain
initially near the quiet levels and later towards the end of
the UT begin to enhance in response to the approaching high speed
streams from a large positive polarity coronal hole. The solar
wind enhancements are expected to persist on August 3 and 4.
In the previous rotation, the daily mean solar wind speeds were
greater than 500 km/s for at least 7 consecutive days during
the passage of this coronal holes. Similar effects are expected
in this rotations.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 1 11002000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 21000001
Learmonth 0 10000000
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Norfolk Island 0 10000001
Culgoora 7 2222222-
Gingin 0 11000000
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 1 21000001
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22200010
Mawson 10 32100025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2101 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Aug 20 Active
04 Aug 22 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 1 August and
is current for 1-2 Aug. The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian
region were mostly at quiet levels during the past 24 hours (August
1).The outlook for today (2 August) is for the geomagnetic activity
to be generally at unsettled levels and at times reaching active
levels in response to the expected arrival of a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) followed by the influence of a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The outlook for 3 and
4 August is for mostly active geomagnetic conditions and at times
reaching moderate storm levels since very strong solar wind speeds
of greater than 500 km/s are expected to emanate from this coronal.
The aurora may be visible on the local nights of 2 and 3 August
from Tasmania and some parts of Victoria, Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions were observed across all latitudes
on 1 August, with the Northern Hemisphere exhibiting stronger
depression. Even stronger depression are expected in the high
and mid latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere today, 2
August, in response to the forecasted active geomagnetic conditions.
Slightly weaker depression are expected in the Southern Hemisphere
today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% throughout the UT day
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's were observed over all regions during
the last 24 hours with isolated enhancements over some Southern
AUS/NZ regions and over the South Pacific Oceans. Moderately
depressed MUF conditions are expected over the Australasia region
due to very low levels of solar ionising radiation. Even poorer
HF conditions are expected on 3 and 4 August in response to the
forecasted active geomagnetic conditions. Near monthly predicted
HF condition are expected to occur from 6 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 47000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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