[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 July 16 issued 2349 UT on 31 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 1 09:49:54 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no flare activity to report. Small region 2570 located at N10E29
has shown signs of decay and is the only numbered sun spot region
currently on the visible disc. Solar wind speed (Vsw) has gradually
declined over the last 24 hours, from 430km/s at 00UT to be ~350km/s
at the time of this report. Bz, the north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/-3nT over
the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at ambient
levels for the next 24 hours. An increase in solar wind parameters
is likely early on 02Aug due to a glancing blow from the CME
associated with the equatorial located disappearing solar filament
from 28Jul. In addition to the CME arrival on 02Aug, a high speed
solar wind stream from a positive polarity coronal hole is expected
to influence the solar wind 02Aug-03Aug. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next 3 days with only slight chance of
a C-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 10110200
Cocos Island 1 11010---
Darwin 2 1011120-
Townsville 3 1111120-
Learmonth 2 11010200
Alice Springs 1 1001020-
Norfolk Island 1 10010100
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 1 10100---
Canberra 1 0001020-
Launceston 2 10110200
Hobart 1 00010200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010---
Casey 8 2332121-
Mawson 8 4211221-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 12 Mostly Quiet, possible Active to Minor Storm
02 Aug 30 Active to Minor Storm
03 Aug 18 Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for 01Aug with the chance of Active
to Minor Storm conditions should CME effects eventuate. Active
to Minor Storm conditions likely for 02Aug-03Aug due to combined
effects of the anticipated CME arrival and coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
02 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor
03 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed across all latitudes
for 31Jul with occasional enhancements at low to mid latitudes.
Continued MUF depressions are expected across all latitudes for
01Aug. Possible disturbed ionospheric conditions for 02Aug-03Aug
due to anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 5 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
03 Aug 5 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 31 July
and is current for 31 Jul to 1 Aug. Depressed MUF's observed
over all regions during the last 24 hours with isolated enhancements
for some Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Continued MUF depressions
are expected over the next 24 hours. Chance of disturbed ionospheric
support for Southern AUS/NZ regions and overall MUF depressions
of 15-30% for 02Aug-03Aug due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 68600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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