[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 16 issued 2335 UT on 28 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 29 09:35:17 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 28 Apr. Region
2535 (N07E16) produced a B8 flare and 4 low level C-class flares
starting from 0125UT. A series of CMEs observed in LASCO C2 imagery
from 0212UT. There is a chance that these CMEs could result in
a minor glancing blow. Solar activity is expected to be Low over
the next 3 days. The solar wind speed decreased slightly to be
~~400km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field varied mostly between +/-4 nT.
Expect the solar wind speed to be at ambient levels for most
of the UT day, 29 Apr. A Solar Sector Boundary Crossing (SSBC)
is likely to disturb the solar wind parameters from late on today,
29 Apr. A coronal hole is likely to further disturb the solar
wind parameters 30 Apr-1 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11112000
Cocos Island 2 11120000
Darwin 3 21111011
Townsville 3 11112011
Learmonth 3 11222000
Alice Springs 2 10112001
Norfolk Island 2 21111000
Gingin 2 12112000
Camden 2 11122000
Canberra 2 11112000
Launceston 3 11122001
Hobart 2 11122000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 10022000
Casey 6 23321100
Mawson 9 33333100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 1232 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 16 Quiet to Active.
30 Apr 20 Quiet to Active with a chance of minor Storm
levels.
01 May 20 Quiet to Active with a chance of minor Storm
levels.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian
region during 28 Apr UT and are expected to remain so for most
of the UT day today. Unsettled to Active with a chance of minor
Storm levels from late on today due to the anticipated arrival
of a Solar Sector Boundary Crossing and coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Poor-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Apr Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
01 May Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely over the next 3 days with
periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 May 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 28 Apr
were generally mildly depressed in northern Australia and equatorial
regions. Conditions are expected to be mildly depressed today,
29 Apr. On UT days 30 Apr, 1 May, the mid and high latitude regions
could experience slightly stronger MUF depressions in response
to the expected active geomagnetic conditions late on 29 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 78200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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