[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 27 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 28 09:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 93/38 93/38
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 27 Apr.
Region 2536(N15E49) was the source of most of the B flaring activity.
All active regions on the solar disk appear relatively stable.
Solar activity is expected to range from Very Low to Low over
the next 3 days. The solar wind speed remained steady over the
last 24 hours at ~450km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field varied between +/-5 nT with a notable southward
excursion between 02-06UT of -6nT. A Solar Sector Boundary Crossing
(SSBC) is likely to disturb the solar wind parameters from late
on day 2, 29 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 12213321
Cocos Island 6 12203311
Darwin 7 12213311
Townsville 7 12213321
Learmonth 10 12223422
Alice Springs 7 12213321
Norfolk Island 6 11313211
Gingin 8 02213421
Camden 9 12323321
Canberra 7 11313311
Launceston 12 12324422
Hobart 8 11323311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
Macquarie Island 15 11424511
Casey 11 33223322
Mawson 21 24322355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1111 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Apr 16 Quiet to Active.
30 Apr 20 Quiet to Active.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the
Australian region during 27 Apr UT. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected for day 1, 28 Apr. Possible Active levels from late
on day 2, 29 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of a Solar Sector
Boundary Crossing.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Poor-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Apr Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
30 Apr Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely over the next 24 hours
due to low ionization levels resulting from lower than predicted
solar activity for this period in the solar cycle.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions were observed in northern Australia
and equatorial regions during UT day, 27 Apr. Isolated periods
of sporadic E and spread F were noted in the Australian region.
Expect near predicted values to mild depressions over the next
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 93700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list