[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 30 09:30:29 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              87/30              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 29 Apr. 
Region 2537(S07W61) was the source of most of the B flaring activity. 
Solar activity is expected to range from Very Low to Low over 
the next 3 days. The solar wind speed decreased slightly to be 
~~ 350km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component varied 
between +/-4 nT predominantly northward. A coronal hole is likely 
to enhance the solar wind speed today, 30 Apr. Minor glancing 
blow from 28 Apr CME activity could result in further enhancement 
day 2, 1 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           3   12101012
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Alice Springs        1   11100001
      Norfolk Island       1   11000001
      Gingin               0   11000000
      Camden               1   11000001
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Launceston           2   12001001
      Hobart               0   11000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   22200000
      Mawson               4   22101003

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2112 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr    20    Quiet to Active with a chance of minor Storm 
                levels.
01 May    20    Quiet to Active with a chance of minor Storm 
                levels.
02 May    12    Quiet to Unsettled.

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 29 April and 
is current for 30 Apr to 1 May. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet 
in the Australian region during 29 Apr UT. Quiet conditions are 
likely to continue until the expected onset of a recurrent coronal 
hole high speed wind stream sometime today. Active conditions 
should follow, possibly reaching minor storm levels. A minor 
glancing blow from 28 Apr CME activity could contribute to this 
disturbance day 2, 1 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Poor-fair      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
01 May      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
02 May      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely over the next 3 days with 
periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Apr    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      50
Apr      50
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
01 May    20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
02 May    20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 29 Apr 
were generally mildly depressed in the Australian region. On 
UT days 30 Apr, 2 May, the mid and high latitude regions could 
experience slightly stronger MUF depressions in response to the 
expected active geomagnetic conditions from today, 30 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    75400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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