[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 23 09:30:28 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 April. 
SOHO LASCO C2 imagery showed no CMEs over the last 24 hours. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 
days with a slight chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed 
increased from 400 km/s to just over 600 km/s over the last 24 
hours due to recurrent coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Currently 
the solar wind has settled to around 550 km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/-10 nT 
over the last 24 hours, however was predominantly positive. Expect 
the solar wind speed to remain elevated over the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22113322
      Cocos Island         7   22113311
      Darwin               7   22113222
      Townsville           9   22123313
      Learmonth            6   21113222
      Alice Springs        4   21012212
      Norfolk Island       4   11012222
      Gingin               7   22112322
      Camden               9   22123323
      Canberra             6   21022322
      Launceston           9   12123323
      Hobart               8   12123322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     7   11033312
      Casey               12   33322323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           67   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary              4   1211 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr    12    Unsettled
24 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled for the 
UT day, 22 April due to an increase in solar wind speed. Expect 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions to prevail over the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect lower then predicted MUFs over the next 3 days 
due to low ionization levels resulting from lower than predicted 
solar activity for this period in the solar cycle.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Apr    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      50
Apr      50
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
24 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
25 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 22 April 
and is current for 23 Apr only. Conditions for HF radio propagation 
on UT day, 22 April, were generally depressed over all Australian 
region this was mainly associated with low incoming solar ionising 
flux. Conditions are expected to remain depressed over the next 
three day. Isolated periods of sporadic E were noted in the Australian 
region with longer periods noted over Cocos Island.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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